Wednesday, November 18, 2009

2010 Forecast

ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF FISH AND GAME
DIVISION OF COMMERCIAL FISHERIES
NEWS RELEASE
Denby Lloyd, Commissioner
John Hilsinger, Director
Contact: Ketchikan Area Office
Steve Heinl 2030 Sea Level Dr. #205
Ketchikan, Alaska 99901
Phone: (907) 225-5195 Date: November 9, 2009
Fax: (907) 225-0599 Time: 4:00 p.m.
2010 SOUTHEAST ALASKA PINK SALMON FORECSAST
The Southeast Alaska pink salmon harvest in 2010 is predicted to be below average, with a point estimate
of 19 million fish (80% confidence interval: 11–32 million fish). An actual harvest of 19 million pink
salmon would be 48% of the recent 10-year average of 40 million pink salmon. The 2010 forecast is a
“model average” of two forecasts: 1) a forecast of the trend in the harvest, and 2) the forecast trend
adjusted using 2009 pink salmon fry abundance data provided by the NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries
Science Center, Auke Bay Laboratories.
A brief discussion and description of the forecast methods can
be found at:
http://www.cf.adfg.state.ak.us/region1/pdfs/salmon/2010_SE_Pink_Salmon_Harvest_Forecast.pdf
Department staff will be available to discuss this forecast and plan for the 2010 season at the SE Alaska
Purse Seine Task Force Meeting scheduled for December 8, 2009, in Ketchikan. In addition, staff from
the NOAA Auke Bay Lab plan to attend this meeting and present their 2010 pink salmon harvest forecast
for Southeast Alaska.
News releases web site: http://documents.cf1.adfg.state.ak.us/TopicContents.po.
Office Ketchikan Petersburg Wrangell Sitka Juneau Haines Yakutat
ADFG 225-5195 772-3801 874-3822 747-6688 465-4250 766-2830 784-3255
ABWE 225-5111 772-3983 874-3215 747-3254 465-4000 766-2533 784-3220

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