The 2012 Season

Looks to be an interesting summer.  Lots of our top echelon from SE has fled to PWS.  Not a few rockstars are also showing late from Sardines.

This is when the movie 'southeast surprise' shows up.

Remember 1989?  How about 99?  Or 96 on the southend?

Where'd those come from?

Now the conditions that would have shown us an upside surprise are mostly missing.  The emerging fry numbers were among the lowest ever, if not the lowest ever.  But as we found last year, finding fry from Icy Strait means little south of District 9.   So the lack of a steady fry indicator for POW, Clarence and Outside Baranof would lead one to believe that there may have been some parts of SE that escaped the terrible winter of 2010-2011, which is the winter that made or broke this 2012 run.

Oh, the winter of 10-11.  Hunted Farragut all fall.  It was a good indicator of what had happened througout Frederick Sound in 2010.   The wonderful stench of spawned out humpies was steady and as strong as any year in recent memory.  Took a long weekend to visit my wife. When I got back our family cabin and everything around it froze for miles throughout the Farragut River watershed.  On November 10th.  Early freeze, Check.  Deep freeze, check.  The Germans who lived there since 1984 say that's the deepest and worst winter they've had in the past 27.

So.  The season is uncertain but there should be a chum surprise.  Remember the cycle.  1984-8-92-96-00-04-08-12---  Yes.   2012 is in the dominant wild and hatchery chum cycle.  Remember 96?  How about 2000.    I recall 1984, the one that started it all, because  Freddy told me that the only season that was bigger was 1966.

So upside on chums.  Check.

Upside on southern pinks. Check.


I'm changing my forecast from terrible at 16 million  to upside southern surprise at 30 million pinks.

And the chums will be better than recent years.  Better.  Not records but a relatively big upside surprise.

NMFS Press Release

Southeast Alaska Purse Seine Salmon Fishing Capacity Reduction Program


The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) conducted a referendum to determine the industry’s willingness to repay a fishing capacity reduction loan to purchase the 64 permits identified in the reduction plan. NMFS mailed ballots to 379 permanent permit holders in the fishery designated as S01A by CFEC who were eligible to vote in the referendum. The voting period opened on March 30, 2012, and closed on April 30, 2012.

NMFS received 269 timely and valid votes. A majority of the 379 permit holders (190) was necessary to approve the referendum. 215 of the votes approved the fees while 54 of the votes were against the fee system. Therefore, the referendum is successful and permit holders have approved the industry fee system. Accordingly, the relinquishment contracts are in full force and effect.

NMFS is now preparing to tender and disburse reduction payments to the selected bidders. NMFS will be publishing a notice in the Federal Register later this week listing the names of the permit holders and the permit numbers being relinquished. We will then be mailing reduction payment tender instructions to each of the 64 permit holders along with a copy of the notice.

NMFS will begin disbursing payments to the selected bidders in June upon completion of the 30 day period for any parties with secured interests in the relinquished permits to take any necessary action. 


NMFS plans to begin fee collection on salmon landings immediately thereafter, likely around July 1, 2012. 


NMFS will provide additional fee collection guidance and instructions in the coming weeks.

The buyback referendum has passed

Great news today The NMFS referendum on fleet consolidation passed by a relatively wide margin More to follow Congratulations to the fleet Lots more work to do but this is a good start Bobbyt