Thursday, November 08, 2012

2013 Forecast

The Southeast Alaska pink salmon harvest in 2013 is predicted to be in the excellent range, with a point estimate of 54 million fish (80% confidence interval: 42–67 million fish). An actual harvest of 54 million pink salmon would be well above the recent 10-year average of 37 million pink salmon, but is close to the average harvest over the past five odd years. The 2013 forecast was produced in two steps: 1) a forecast of the trend in the harvest, and 2) the forecast trend adjusted using 2012 juvenile pink salmon abundance data provided by the NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Auke Bay Laboratories. A brief discussion and description of the forecast methods can be found at:
Department staff will be available to discuss this forecast and plan for the 2013 season at the SE Alaska Purse Seine Task Force Meeting scheduled for December 6, 2012, in Juneau. In addition, staff from the NOAA Auke Bay Laboratories plan to attend this meeting and present their 2013 pink salmon harvest forecast for Southeast Alaska.

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